Commitment of Traders Report to Cap Coffee's Rally

Commercial Traders Nail 20% Rally. Anxious to Take Profits.

Classic Commercial trading pattern mimics the rise and fall normal market behavior.

 

July 23, 2012

This trade setup is merely a random sample of the day’s trades generated by COT Signals. To track our work their and receive all of our nightly trading recommendations, click here.

We published a buy recommendation in the coffee futures market on June 22. We suggested that based on the movement we saw in the Commitment of Traders Report as well as the discrepancy between JO, a coffee ETF versus the coffee futures, that the coffee futures market had become oversold and commercial traders were building a base to force short covering in the futures market.
The coffee futures market has rallied 20% since then and commercial buyers from one month ago have turned sellers. Commercial sellers have pared their position by 23% in the last three weeks. The heavy selling has turned momentum negative while Thursday and Friday’s action created a reversal and sell signal from overbought levels. We will be selling September coffee futures and placing a protective stop above Friday’s high of  190.85.

Commitment of Traders shows reversal in Commercial positions.

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ANDREW WALDOCK
866-990-0777
This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Double Top in 30yr Treasury Bond Futures

Commitment of Traders Report Shows Bearish Commercials

Commercial traders shed half their position in last six weeks.

July 18, 2012

This trade setup is merely a random sample of the day’s trades generated by COT Signals. To track our work their and receive all of our nightly trading recommendations, click here.




Commercial traders have been placing heavier bets on a rise in yield for long dated Treasuries. This is most obvious in the 30yr Treasury Bond futures. Commercial traders have cut their position by more than half in the last six weeks. This move also fits in with the action in the interest rate sector we discussed in mid June in, “Fear and Inflation.”
Briefly, we discussed the very light buying of Treasury futures during May’s equity sell off. Their buying was substantially less than would be expected during a flight to safety rally. Finally, we pointed out a piece by Crestmont Research on interest rate volatility and using their analysis came up with a price envelope for December Bond futures of 154^20 on the high side and 140^06 on the low side. Extrapolating this to the September contract we are currently trading and we get 153^17 high to 138^30 low. We will be selling 30yr Treasury Bond futures and placing our protective stop above the swing high at 152^10.

 

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ANDREW WALDOCK
866-990-0777
This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Commercial Traders Selling Corn Rally

Commitment of Traders Report Shows Heavy Selling in Corn Futures.

Commercial traders shed 23% of position ahead of WASDE report.

July 12, 2012

This trade setup is merely a random sample of the day’s trades generated by COT Signals. To track our work their and receive all of our nightly trading recommendations, click here.

 

 

There’s no question the corn crop will struggle to meet the market’s expectations. Early calls are for a national yield now aproaching 145 bushels per acre. Furthermore, much of the record acreage planted is in marginal land with little hope for good production in anything but perfect weather.

Despite the bullish fundamentals, commercial traders in the grain markets were clear in their intentions of getting forward delivereies sold ahead of the WASDE report. Their selling intensified in the last week of the rally. They sold 27,000 corn futures contracts as the market consolidated. Will this form an island top and gap lower leaving small specs and funds to bail out of their long positions? I would expect the market to fall far enough to close the gap left from July 3^rd, at least.

 Sign up for COT Signals!

ANDREW WALDOCK

866-990-0777

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sell Wheat Ahead of WASDE

Commitment of Traders Send Clear Sell Signal Ahead of WASDE

A futures trade for the truly adventurous.

July 10, 2012

This trade setup is merely a random sample of the day’s trades generated by COT Signals. To track our work their and receive all of our nightly trading recommendations, click here.

 

Wheat futures have benefitted greatly from the rallies in corn and soybeans. However, the wheat crop has not been subjected to the same weather conditions as the other two due to its non-coincidental growth cycle. Therefore, much of this has taken place as a symptathy rally.

This sympathy has been primarily fueled by small speculators buying grains. We can see that Commercial traders have sold off 62.5% of their position since the May highs, which coincides with the beginning of the seasonal weakness.

Gutsy traders may want to sell September wheat in front of tomorrow’s World Agriculture Supply & Demand Report. The sell signal based on our commercial trader modeling is quite clear. However, given the magnitude of the report I HIGHLY suggest placing a protective buy stop above yesterday’s high at $8.44 ¾.

   

Commitment of Traders Daily Signals

ANDREW WALDOCK

866-990-0777

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Commitment of Traders Confirms Natural Gas Reversal

Commercial Trader Selling Leads to Key Reversal

Commitment of Traders Report identifies commercial traders as main sellers on natural gas futures rally.

The natural gas market is awash in excess supply. The warm summer has helped to push current stock through the pipeline but the fundamental picture remains little changed. New technologies have simply led to a glut of natural gas on the market.

The expectations for the natural gas futures market can be clearly seen in the actions of the commercial traders. They were the ones building the base as it traded down to $2 and below and they are primary sellers now that the market has rebounded.

Building on their success in this market we will also employ the technical key reversal in our creation of a new short trade. We will place our protective buy stop above Friday’s high at 3.060. Nearest supprt is $2.500. I expect the market to trade closer to $2.000 or below.

Sign Up for COT Signals.

ANDREW WALDOCK

866-990-0777

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Commitment of Traders Defending Cocoa Resistance

Commercial Traders Defend Cocoa at $2400.

Commercial traders rule sideways market. Three wins in a row. Will it be four?

We often talk about the Commercial Traders’ ability to define value as markets meander. The cocoa futures market has been an exceptional example over the last few months. The market has basically, gone nowhere. Fortunately, we’ve been able to pick up three succesful trades by following their ideas on overbought and oversold markets. Let’s see if we can make it four in a row. We are selling September Cocoa futures and placing our protective buy stop above yesterday’s high of 2375.

Please calll with any questions.

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Three winning trades in a row in cocoa futures.

 

ANDREW WALDOCK

866-990-0777

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.