Double Top in 30yr Treasury Bond Futures

Commitment of Traders Report Shows Bearish Commercials

Commercial traders shed half their position in last six weeks.

July 18, 2012

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Commercial traders have been placing heavier bets on a rise in yield for long dated Treasuries. This is most obvious in the 30yr Treasury Bond futures. Commercial traders have cut their position by more than half in the last six weeks. This move also fits in with the action in the interest rate sector we discussed in mid June in, “Fear and Inflation.”
Briefly, we discussed the very light buying of Treasury futures during May’s equity sell off. Their buying was substantially less than would be expected during a flight to safety rally. Finally, we pointed out a piece by Crestmont Research on interest rate volatility and using their analysis came up with a price envelope for December Bond futures of 154^20 on the high side and 140^06 on the low side. Extrapolating this to the September contract we are currently trading and we get 153^17 high to 138^30 low. We will be selling 30yr Treasury Bond futures and placing our protective stop above the swing high at 152^10.

 

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ANDREW WALDOCK
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This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.