Double Top in 30yr Treasury Bond Futures

Commitment of Traders Report Shows Bearish Commercials

Commercial traders shed half their position in last six weeks.

July 18, 2012

This trade setup is merely a random sample of the day’s trades generated by COT Signals. To track our work their and receive all of our nightly trading recommendations, click here.




Commercial traders have been placing heavier bets on a rise in yield for long dated Treasuries. This is most obvious in the 30yr Treasury Bond futures. Commercial traders have cut their position by more than half in the last six weeks. This move also fits in with the action in the interest rate sector we discussed in mid June in, “Fear and Inflation.”
Briefly, we discussed the very light buying of Treasury futures during May’s equity sell off. Their buying was substantially less than would be expected during a flight to safety rally. Finally, we pointed out a piece by Crestmont Research on interest rate volatility and using their analysis came up with a price envelope for December Bond futures of 154^20 on the high side and 140^06 on the low side. Extrapolating this to the September contract we are currently trading and we get 153^17 high to 138^30 low. We will be selling 30yr Treasury Bond futures and placing our protective stop above the swing high at 152^10.

 

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ANDREW WALDOCK
866-990-0777
This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Commitment of Traders Defending Cocoa Resistance

Commercial Traders Defend Cocoa at $2400.

Commercial traders rule sideways market. Three wins in a row. Will it be four?

We often talk about the Commercial Traders’ ability to define value as markets meander. The cocoa futures market has been an exceptional example over the last few months. The market has basically, gone nowhere. Fortunately, we’ve been able to pick up three succesful trades by following their ideas on overbought and oversold markets. Let’s see if we can make it four in a row. We are selling September Cocoa futures and placing our protective buy stop above yesterday’s high of 2375.

Please calll with any questions.

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Three winning trades in a row in cocoa futures.

 

ANDREW WALDOCK

866-990-0777

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Silver Futures Set to Rally

Commitment of Traders Report Points to Higher Silver Prices

Commercial traders building position for silver futures rally.

 

June 26, 2012

This trade setup is merely a random sample of the day’s trades generated by COT Signals. To track our work their and receive all of our nightly trading recommendations, click here.

The commercial traders have nailed the silver market for the last few months. They were the heaviest sellers at the March highs. They sold more than 10,000 contracts through the month of February.

They’ve also been the heaviest buyers through the May – June decline, adding 7,000 contracts in the last month. These additions have pushed their position just above their buying levels in early January.

Their buying has also led to a technical divergence in the ARSI momentum indicator. We can see that the market made a new low on Friday’s trade, down to $26.57. However, the ARSI’s significantly higher reading in light of the market’s new lows provides evidence of a turnaround in the market, rather than continued downside.

We will be buying September silver futures and placing a protective sell stop at the swing low of $26.57.
If you would like to trade commodities with us, please go to Commodity & Derivative Advisors.

 

COT Signals

 

ANDREW WALDOCK

866-990-0777

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.