Calling a Top in Lean Hogs

Commitment of Traders Report Confirms Seasonal High

December 4, 2012

This trade setup is merely a random sample of the day’s trades generated by COT Signals. To track our work their and receive all of our nightly trading recommendations, click here.

 

The February lean hog contract is being hit with bearish signals from every direction. Yesterday, we published a seasonal sell signal based on the recommendation of Moor Research and this morning we have a sell signal from COT Signals which, means there is considerable commercial selling. Finally, we have a technical trigger called a , “90-10.” This is described as a continuation play in Larry Connor’s book, Street Smarts and the method was developed by Linda Raschke. The 90-10 Low Continuation signal is fired when the day's trading closes within the bottom 10% of the day's range. It tells us that yesterday's late day move lower is likely to continue on into today.

Whichever method we use to view this market, seasonally, fundamentally or, technically they all point lower. We’ll sell February lean hogs and place a protective buy stop at yesterday’s high of 87.775.

Lean Hog Futures Top  

 

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ANDREW WALDOCK

866-990-0777

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Commercial Traders Force Expiration Rally

Commitment of Traders Report Shows Strong Build in Soybean Meal

November 27, 2012

This trade setup is merely a random sample of the day’s trades generated by COT Signals. To track our work their and receive all of our nightly trading recommendations, click here.

  Commercial traders have more than doubled their position in December soybean meal futures over the last month. Clearly they have been ahead of the curve in their anticipation of the seasonal strength the market typically shows between mid October and contract expiration. Friday is first notice day and speculators will need to be out of the market by Thursday’s close. Therefore, there is a strong possibility that the December soybean meal futures will rally on speculator short covering into the notice period. We will place a protective sell stop at the recent low of 420.2 and look to take profits by Thursday’s close.

Commitment of Traders Report Build in Commercial Position

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ANDREW WALDOCK

866-990-0777

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Commitment of Traders Shows Sugar Short Trap

Commitment of Traders Report Springs Bear Trap on Sugar Futures Speculators

November 13, 2012

This trade setup is merely a random sample of the day’s trades generated by COT Signals. To track our work their and receive all of our nightly trading recommendations, click here.

This morning’s trade in the sugar futures market takes a look at the peculiarity of, “roll over.” When futures markets expire traders must determine whether they are going to make delivery of the commodity, take delivery of the commodity or, the vast majority of the time, offset the position and move into the next available expiration. This meant offsetting October positions and creating a new position for March delivery.

Short covering in the October contract forced the market back towards 21.50. New selling was unable to push the market below the October contract low of 18.81. Commercial momentum has turned positive and we view this as a short trap for the speculators. We have bought March sugar futures and placed a protective sell stop at 18.86.

 

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ANDREW WALDOCK

866-990-0777

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Commitment of Traders Sell Signal in Australian Dollar

Key Reversal Bar Triggers Short Sale in Australian Dollar

November 11, 2012

This trade setup is merely a random sample of the day’s trades generated by COT Signals. To track our work their and receive all of our nightly trading recommendations, click here.

This morning’s trade in the Australian Dollar Futures ties uses both fundamental and technical analysis. Fundamentally, the commercial traders are bearish on the Australian Dollar. Recent speculative buying pushed the market to overbought levels heading into Friday’s trade.
Technically, we saw just how weak the speculative hands are in the market as the Australian Dollar put in an outside day closing below Thursday’s low. This is especially important as Friday’s high marked a new 30 day high and was followed by an immediate washout.
We are selling the Australian Dollar Futures and placing a protective buy stop at Friday’s high of 103.84. This represents about $600 in risk at current market levels.

Key Reversal Bar in Australian Dollar Futures

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ANDREW WALDOCK
866-990-0777
This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Commercial Traders Sell Soybean Oil Futures

September 6, 2012

This trade setup is merely a random sample of the day’s trades generated by COT Signals. To track our work their and receive all of our nightly trading recommendations, click here.

Commercial Trader Selling in Bean Oil Futures

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Commercial traders have been aggressively selling soybean meal since the July high of 55.19. This is a clear adjustment in their expectations of the soybean crush as soybean by products become less desirable as feed to their increasing cost. Yesterday’s inside bar coupled with a Commitment of Traders sell signal provided a low risk entry for a counter trend trade. We sold soybean meal futures on the overnight penetration of yesterday’s low at 55.25. Normally, we would place our protective buy stop at the swing high. However, the inside bar setup allows us to place our stop tighter, at yesterday’s high of 58.24. We are looking for a 1/3 retracement from the June lows through this week’s high. This gives us a target of 55.17.

ANDREW WALDOCK

866-990-0777

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Commitment of Traders Buy Signal in 30yr Bond Futures

Commercial bond buying reinforces equity sell off.

August 23, 2012

This trade setup is merely a random sample of the day’s trades generated by COT Signals. To track our work their and receive all of our nightly trading recommendations, click here.

Commercial Traders Buying Bonds

This morning we have a buy signal in the 30yr Bond futures. Commercial traders were major buyers coming off of the March lows and finally started to shed their positions as the market climbed above 148. Their selling patter became quite clear as the market stalled between May and June before finally selling off in July and August. Commercial traders are now actively re-purchasing contracts.
This also ties in with the sell signal we posted yesterday in the Dow futures. We expect bond futures to rally as money finds its way into safe havens in anticipation of an equity sell off. Finally, the Federal Reserve Board minutes seem to be pointing towards QE3. This will further depress yields and lead to greater price gains in the futures.
We will buy bonds and place a protective stop below the swing low at 145^08.

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ANDREW WALDOCK
866-990-0777
This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Key Reversal Triggers Dow Sell Signal

Commitment of Traders sell signal triggered by key reversal bar.

August 22, 2012

This trade setup is merely a random sample of the day’s trades generated by COT Signals. To track our work their and receive all of our nightly trading recommendations, click here.

 

The Dow made a new four month high at 13308 yesterday. The new high was masde on declining volume and open interest and the market was unable to hold the new level leading to a key reversal bar.

This is a classic example combination of technical and fundamental factors coming together to create a solid trade setup. The Commitment of Traders commercial traders have been selling the Dow for the entire rally, paring more than 50% of the long position they accumulated at the June lows. Fundamentally, we discussed the overvalued nature of the equity markets in last week’s blog. Finally, the key reversal bar at 90 day highs is technical analysis 101. We have sold the Dow futures and placed our protective stops at yesterday’s swing high of 13308. 

Key Reversal Triggers Dow Jones Sell Signal

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ANDREW WALDOCK

866-990-0777

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.