Thursday, August 23, 2012

Commitment of Traders Buy Signal in 30yr Bond Futures

Commercial bond buying reinforces equity sell off.

August 23, 2012

This trade setup is merely a random sample of the day’s trades generated by COT Signals. To track our work their and receive all of our nightly trading recommendations, click here.

Commercial Traders Buying Bonds
This morning we have a buy signal in the 30yr Bond futures. Commercial traders were major buyers coming off of the March lows and finally started to shed their positions as the market climbed above 148. Their selling patter became quite clear as the market stalled between May and June before finally selling off in July and August. Commercial traders are now actively re-purchasing contracts.
This also ties in with the sell signal we posted yesterday in the Dow futures. We expect bond futures to rally as money finds its way into safe havens in anticipation of an equity sell off. Finally, the Federal Reserve Board minutes seem to be pointing towards QE3. This will further depress yields and lead to greater price gains in the futures.
We will buy bonds and place a protective stop below the swing low at 145^08.

Sign Up For COT Signals



ANDREW WALDOCK
866-990-0777
This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Key Reversal Triggers Dow Sell Signal

Commitment of Traders sell signal triggered by key reversal bar.


August 22, 2012

This trade setup is merely a random sample of the day’s trades generated by COT Signals. To track our work their and receive all of our nightly trading recommendations, click here.

 
The Dow made a new four month high at 13308 yesterday. The new high was masde on declining volume and open interest and the market was unable to hold the new level leading to a key reversal bar.
This is a classic example combination of technical and fundamental factors coming together to create a solid trade setup. The Commitment of Traders commercial traders have been selling the Dow for the entire rally, paring more than 50% of the long position they accumulated at the June lows. Fundamentally, we discussed the overvalued nature of the equity markets in last week’s blog. Finally, the key reversal bar at 90 day highs is technical analysis 101. We have sold the Dow futures and placed our protective stops at yesterday’s swing high of 13308. 

Key Reversal Triggers Dow Jones Sell Signal



ANDREW WALDOCK
866-990-0777
This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

RBA Caps Commercial Interest in Australian Dollar


Royal Bank of Australia Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged

Commercial Traders Continue to Unwind Largest Position in Years.

 


The Australian Dollar has rallied approximately 10% since the beginning of June. Commercial traders were well prepared for this, having built up their largest position in more than 10 years through the month of May. However, as the rally progressed, commercial traders began to take profits. Much their exit was due to the Royal bank of Australia’s pending interest rate decision. They left rates unchanged on August 10th. This should effectively cap the rally as much of the incentive has been taken out of the market. The recent topping action is therefore, a combination of technical (see ARSI), Fundamental, (commercial trader and news event (RBA rate decision.) We are selling the Australian Dollar Futures and placing a protective buy stop above the swing high at $1.0578. 




ANDREW WALDOCK
866-990-0777
This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Commodity & Derivative Adv. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Friday, August 10, 2012

Gas Prices Jump More than Expected

The recent jump in gas prices were expected to be much more gradual. We saw commercial traders as strong buyers of crude oil below $80 as June came to a close. We firmly believed that this would be the bottom of the cycle as the national average fell to $3.30 per gallon. What no one expected were the simultaneous mechanical failures of some of the main pipelines and refineries. This has caused the price of petroleum products like heating oil, gasoline and diesel fuel to skyrocket by 25% in little more than one month.
The refineries here in the U.S. use about 9 million barrels of crude oil per day. The last two weeks has seen nearly 2 million barrels per day taken off supply as unplanned shutdowns due to various mechanical issues and fires have popped up across the country. Further adding to the refinery issues is a cutback in supply that will be coming from Canada due to a leak sprung in the Enbridge pipeline, which has spilled more than a thousand barrels of unrefined crude oil in central Wisconsin. Enbridge has fallen under increasing regulatory scrutiny, as this is just the latest of a trail of pipeline failures. The most notable was a 2010 incident, which dumped 20,000 barrels of oil into the Kalamazoo River.
Mechanically, major refiners near Chicago and San Francisco have both been shutdown. There are two refineries that have been shutdown simultaneously in the Chicago area and both of them are among the 10 largest refiners in the country with the Whiting, Indiana facility ranking 7th and the Wood River, Illinois facility ranking 10th. These outages combined to raise the price of gasoline in the Chicago area by more than $.44 in less than a week. The Chevron facility in Richmond, California is responsible for 10% of the gasoline production on the west coast. Reports are conflicted on the how long these refineries will be out of operation. Estimates range from weeks to months on each individual facility with consensus that the Chevron facility in Richmond will probably be out of service the longest.
Political and fundamental factions had already begun battling over the true value of crude oil from March through July. This is seen as the battle between speculators and commercial traders. Commercial traders had been heavy sellers of crude oil futures from March through May when the market was trading above $103 per barrel based on Iranian threats and general unrest in the Middle East, which led to speculative buying. These threats were competing with a market that was massively over supplied. Eventually, over supply won and the Commitment of Traders analysis generated sell signals at both $109 and $106 per barrel. June’s precipitous declines moved commercial traders to the buy side as they covered short positions and increased their positions by more than 30% during the month of June.

Commercial Traders in the Crude Oil Market


Sign Up for COT Signals!

The final fuel to this petroleum rally is the expectation of further government stimulus to the economy. We’ve suggested over and over that the key to the upcoming election is the domestic economy and recent polls concur. The biggest thing President Obama could do to help himself would be to force a resolution in the Eurozone. The markets hate uncertainty and any conclusion to the drawn out death spiral of Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy would create a huge relief rally in the stock market. However, since his sphere of influence doesn’t extend far past our shores, he’ll do the next best thing by flooding the market with Dollars, which will lead to nominally lower interest rates and show that he is taking action.
Regrettably we will bear the unintended consequence of higher gas prices as our Dollar is devalued on the global market and our refineries find it more profitable to ship finished petroleum products overseas, rather than sell them on the domestic market.

This blog is published by Andy Waldock. Andy Waldock is a trader, analyst, broker and asset manager. Therefore, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his family, or, his clients in any market discussed. The blog is meant for educational purposes and to develop a dialogue among those with an interest in the commodity markets. The commodity markets employ a high degree of leverage and may not be suitable for all investors. There is substantial risk of loss in investing in futures.